“In the age we are about to live, clashes of civilizations pose the greatest threat to world peace, and an international order based on civilizations is the best protection against the danger of a world war”
– Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilization and
The Remaking of world order, 2002
Another geopolitical hotspot has started flashing red. With companies and investors already keeping close tabs on the war in Ukraine and growing tension between the United States and China, an outbreak of deadly violence in Israel adds the danger of contagion across the Middle East. And it’s erupting just as the global economy is in a fragile position.
Fighting in Israel is raging into a third day after Hamas fighters breached the border from Gaza in an unprecedented surprise attack, nearly 50 years to the day after the Yom Kippur war of 1973
Officials say the death toll in Israel has passed 700. Videos show the horror on the ground, including an attack on a music festival where Israeli rescuers say they found 260 people dead. Other clips show Israeli civilians taken hostage. Hamas claims it is holding more than 130 hostages, including Israeli army officers. More than 400 Palestinians have died, according to the health ministry in Gaza, and medical care has been complicated by Israel cutting energy to the territory
Israel has been pounding Gaza with airstrikes and formally declared war on Hamas. An Israel Defense Forces spokesperson said that Israel is still not in full control along the border with Gaza as troops go “door to door” to hunt “the last terrorist inside Israeli territory”
Following Hamas’s brutal attack on Israel, the framework of the Abraham Accords, which was poised to culminate in the normalization of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, could potentially be thrown into crisis or put on hold in light of the possible developments in the conflict. However, for Mohammed bin Salman, reversing course regarding Israel would indeed constitute a significant defeat, a sign of domestic and regional political weakness, as it would call into question the kingdom’s foreign policy strategy
In the light of Samuel P. Huntington’s theory of ‘The clash of civilizations’, the reopening of conflict should not be categorized as a classical positional warfare but rather as a conflict between civilizations that pits contrasting cultural paradigms against each other. In this regard, the demise of political bipolarity has served as a catalyst for the emergence of increasingly frequent and intense conflicts along cultural fault lines rather than political-ideological ones, as observed in the 20th century
US VICTIMS
Republicans’ reactions
Problems for Biden
Ever since Hamas defeated Fatah in the 2007 Battle of Gaza, only two years after Israeli disengagement from the territory, the rhythm of the Israel-Hamas conflict had become increasingly routine, with regular Hamas terrorism followed by predictable Israeli reprisals. Whenever the destructive cycles became especially violent, outside mediators would help negotiate a temporary ceasefire. Israel would typically accomplish its primary goal of enhancing its security, and Hamas would usually accomplish its goal of presenting itself as the leader of the “resistance.” And the people in Gaza, those who Hamas claims to support, would continue to suffer
Hamas executed a stunning military surprise, breaching the Israeli border in multiple ways and attacking more than 20 Israeli population centers, as well as military bases. The failure of Israel’s intelligence and preparedness is second only to that in 1973. But this Hamas victory might prove Pyrrhic. In fact, Hamas itself might have been surprised by the extent of its initial success. The trauma in Israel today should give pause to those thinking that Israel will simply acquiesce to a short tit for tat. As bad as things have been in Gaza in the past two decades— and they have been terrible—the coming weeks could prove even worse
October 7 will be remembered in Israel as a tremendous national trauma. Today’s atrocity will test the country’s unity, foresight, and military might. Throughout the difficult days ahead, it’s worth recalling that Israel, not the Arab coalition that launched the war, won in 1973. 9/11 may be the better comparison. A nonstate terrorist group entered the country bent on maximizing civilian casualties. The world watched as sheer barbarism shook a democratic nation. The attack followed a massive intelligence failure. And it will stir Israel, like 9/11 prompted the United States, to a resolute response
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