Dispatch from Rome: November 2023

The Haizum Italian Insider Report is a monthly news service that monitors the most relevant issues in Italy. This document focuses on political, Economic, and Strategic matters, considering the role of Italy within the European Union, the MENA region, and Transatlantic Relations. The report will deliver clever insights by leveraging Haizum’s deep connections in the national institutional ecosystem.

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In the ever-evolving landscape of Italy’s institutional scene, President Mattarella has brought a wave of change by appointing Giovanni Pitruzzella and Antonella Sciarrone Alibrandi as judges to the Constitutional Court. A significant constitutional reform on the direct election of the Prime Minister has been set in motion. Yet, the challenge lies in rallying support for the necessary two-thirds quorum. Steering into the realm of governmental affairs, the appointment of Marco Mattei as Chief of Staff for the Ministry of Health injects a dose of expertise into the role. Moreover, Undersecretary Alessio Butti‘s move in forming a Coordination Committee on Artificial Intelligence signals a commitment to staying ahead in the ever-evolving technological landscape. The unofficial commencement of the succession race at the National Association of Italian Municipalities (Anci) paints a picture of potential continuity in ANCI with the center-left.

Embarking on the defense front, Italy‘s participation in the Global Combat Air Programme (Gcap) alongside the UK and Japan showcases the nation’s commitment to advancing defense capabilities. The resumption of collaboration with the United Arab Emirates signals blossoming international partnerships. Turning to diplomacy, the inauguration of the Taipei Representative Office and the maiden meeting of the Italian French Frontier Committee underscore Italy’s concerted efforts to global collaborations.

In the economic and financial arena, the winds of change are evident with leadership shifts in Confindustria and Infratel, and the parliamentary scrutiny of the 2024 budget bill sheds light on internal challenges. Italy’s stance in European negotiations on the reform of the Stability Pact adds a layer of complexity, turning the economic outlook into a compelling narrative.

On the energy front, Italy’s participation in the bilateral energy dialogue by WEC with the United States and its entry into an alliance for small modular reactors showcase a commitment to sustainable energy development. The appointment of a commission for the Environmental Code reform, addressing pollution norms and landscape protections, has been met with some criticism.

Zooming into the corporate sector, the stage is set for strategic movements with leadership changes at Assicurazioni Generali, financial developments at Enel, the resolution of Eni’s long-standing dispute with Nigeria, and the positive results for Fincantieri in Q3 2023.

Mattarella appoints Constitutional Court’s judges

Sergio Mattarella has appointed Giovanni Pitruzzella and Antonella Sciarrone Alibrandi as judges to the Constitutional Court. They replace Daria de Pretis and Nicolò Zanon. Contrary to previous rumors, the appointed judges are not Ida Angela Nicotra and Gabriella Palmieri Sandulli.

The Parliament‘s nomination process for another Constitutional Court judge is experiencing delays. Francesco Saverio Marini is a potential candidate, and there were initial speculations about moving Minister Nordio to the Constitutional Court, but this seems unlikely. The role of president is expected to be filled by constitutionalist Professor Augusto Barbera.

Giovanni Pitruzzella was recently reappointed as Advocate General at the EU Court of Justice. Pitruzzella served as the President of the Italian Antitrust Authority from 2011 to 2018. Antonella Sciarrone Alibrandi, formerly the Deputy Rector at the Catholic University, was appointed by Pope Francis as Undersecretary for the Dicastery for Culture and Education last year. She is a Milan-born professor of Economics Law, holding various positions in academic and regulatory bodies. 

Constitutional reform

The constitutional reform proposed by the government, aiming to introduce the so-called “Premierato” – the direct election of the Prime Minister – has been signed by the Quirinale and forwarded to the Senate for initial review. Following approval by the Council of Ministers, the text underwent some revisions and a significant rebranding of its title, now called “Provisions for the direct election of the Prime Minister, the strengthening of Government stability, and the abolition of the appointment of life senators by the President of the Republic.” This renaming is an effort to make the reform more appealing, especially in anticipation of a likely confirmatory referendum. It is recognized that, given the current party landscape, garnering opposition support to achieve the two-thirds quorum may prove challenging.

Ministry of Health’s new Chief of Staff

The Ministry of Health has appointed Marco Mattei as its new Chief of Staff. Dr. Mattei holds a degree in Medicine and Surgery, specializing in Gynecology and Obstetrics, a research doctorate in Physiology of Body Districts, a master’s in health economics and management, and additional qualifications.  Throughout his career, Dr. Marco Mattei has held key roles in prestigious institutions, including the Board of Directors of La Sapienza University and the Board of Directors of ACEA ATO2 s.p.a., an organization managing the Integrated Water System of Rome and its province. 

Coordination Committee on Artificial Intelligence

Alessio Butti, the Undersecretary for Technological Innovation at the Presidency of the Council of Ministers, has nominated 13 individuals to form a Coordination Committee responsible for updating strategies on the use of artificial intelligence (AI). The committee, based at the Presidency of the Council of Ministers – Department for Digital Transformation, will support Butti. The Committee, operating until January 31, 2024, will have its headquarters at the Department for Digital Transformation. Additionally, a Technical Secretariat will be established at the Agency for Digital Italy (AgID) to support the Committee and prepare necessary documents. The Technical Secretariat, comprised of experts from the Undersecretary, the Department for Digital Transformation, and AgID, will present a final synthesis document to the Undersecretary by the specified date.

ANCI’s race for the successor to Antonio Decaro

During the 40th annual assembly of the National Association of Italian Municipalities (Anci) in Genoa, the unofficial race for the successor to Antonio Decaro has begun. The official election for the leadership renewal is scheduled for 2024, but the competition could start earlier if Decaro decides to run with the Democratic Party (Pd) in the upcoming European elections in June.

The voice of mayors has traditionally held significant influence, particularly evident during the pandemic, as demonstrated by the presence of top institutional authorities in Genoa, including President Mattarella. 

Anci has predominantly been associated with the center-left, specifically the Democratic Party. For the post-Decaro scenario, the competition is expected to remain within this political area, despite the national dominance of the center-right. Gaetano Manfredi (Naples Mayor): An independent with support from the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Democratic Party, Manfredi served as the Minister of University and Research in the Conte II Government.  Matteo Lepore (Bologna Mayor): A first-term mayor like Manfredi, Lepore supported the current secretary during the previous primaries, making him a potential candidate. Stefano Lo Russo (Turin Mayor): Supported by the internal minority of the party, Lo Russo is another potential candidate.

While these names circulate, it’s crucial not to underestimate the center-right, especially the expectations and capabilities of Fratelli d’Italia. Marco Bucci, Genoa‘s mayor, stands out as a potential consensus candidate.

Advancements on the Global Combat Air Programme (Gcap)

Advancements have been made in the Global Combat Air Programme (Gcap), a trilateral project involving Italy, the UK, and Japan for the development of a sixth-generation jet. The Defense Ministers of the three countries—Guido Crosetto (Italy), Grant Shapps (UK), and Yoshiaki Wada (Japan)—met in Rome to work on integrating the best technologies from each nation. The goal is to finalize a treaty by the end of the year. The Gcap aims to create an integrated air combat system, with a central piloted aircraft coordinating unmanned remotely piloted vehicles for various roles. The potential involvement of Saudi Arabia in the program remains a sensitive topic, with the UK supportive and Japan strongly opposed. There are also reports of Germany considering withdrawal from the Franco-German project (FCAS) and exploring entry into the Gcap.

Defense collaboration between Italy and the United Arab Emirates

Defense and aerospace collaboration between Italy and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) resumes in Dubai. The UAE market reopens its doors to Italian defense and aerospace entities, marking a significant shift according to Carlo Festucci, the Secretary-General of AIAD (Association of Italian Aerospace and Defense Companies). This positive development was observed during the Dubai Airshow, a premier international forum for aviation, space exploration, and defense. The Italian Defense Minister, Guido Crosetto, inaugurated the official Italian pavilion at the fair, emphasizing the importance of this event.

Festucci highlighted the significance of re-establishing a dialogue with the UAE, emphasizing the country’s potential for substantial technological exchange and contracts. He acknowledged the opportunity for Italian entities to demonstrate their capabilities to the UAE Government officials. Minister Crosetto emphasized the diverse range of Italian aerospace industry products on display, including electronic systems for aviation and defense, power systems, ground support equipment, components, software, and analysis, planning, and simulation systems.

Taipei's office in Milan officially opened its doors

A Milan, near Central Station, the Taipei Representative Office in Italy – Milan Office officially opened. This inauguration marks the establishment of the second Taiwanese representative office in Italy, complementing the existing Taiwan Trade Center in Milan, founded in 1970 and managed by the non-profit Taiwan External Trade Development Council. The office aims to enhance collaboration with local administrations, strengthen ties with both public and private entities, as well as universities and think tanks. The overarching goal is to promote mutual awareness between Taiwan and Italy.

In July, an agreement was reached between Italy’s air traffic management company, Enav, and Taiwan’s Air Navigation and Weather Services (ANWS) for the supply and support of Cronos, a new aeronautical information management system. Additionally, new air routes, such as Milan-Taipei operated by Eva Airways, and the resumed direct flight from Rome to Taipei via China Airlines, signify increased cooperation. For Italy, this signifies a step away from the Silk Road Initiative, as the Meloni Government prioritizes revitalizing the global strategic partnership with China over renewing the 2019 memorandum of understanding.

At what stage is the Italian French Frontier Committee?  

Italian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Antonio Tajani, and his French counterpart, Catherine Colonna, held the inaugural meeting of the Cross-Border Committee established by the Quirinale Treaty between Italy and France. The treaty, signed in Rome on November 26, 2021, took two years to materialize. Described as an institutional meeting, it was characterized by a cautious approach. Prior to the gathering, Ministers Tajani and Colonna engaged in bilateral discussions, covering topics such as the crises in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Approximately sixty participants, including representatives from regions and various mayors. The committee also included representatives from areas of cooperation outlined in the Treaty’s work program, like the European Park of Maritime Alps-Mercantour GECT. Some Italian and French parliamentarians and representatives from various organizations, including Unioncamere, and the Italian Mont Blanc Tunnel Company, were also present.

The upcoming weeks will see the formation of working groups with designated rapporteurs to propose solutions to specific issues. The committee plans to reconvene in six months, this time in Paris, to assess progress. The Cross-Border Committee represents a novel approach for central and regional administrations accustomed to working independently. This collaborative method challenges the traditional diplomatic channel, emphasizing mixed and flexible composition—combining state, regional, and cross-border operator perspectives.

Raffaele Langella appointed as the new Director General of Confindustria

Raffaele Langella has been appointed as the new Director General of Confindustria, the Italian employers’ federation. Langella, a former Italian ambassador to Singapore, currently serving as the director of International Affairs for the industrialists’ union, was chosen to replace Francesca Mariotti. The decision follows a heated dispute between Confindustria’s president, Carlo Bonomi, and Mariotti over the severance package for the Communication Chief, Alessia Magistroni. 

Infratel new leadership

Alfredo Maria Becchetti, a notary and former coordinator of the League in Rome, has been named the new president, while engineer Pietro Piccinetti, associated with Minister Urso, is the new CEO. This marks the end of Marco Bellezza‘s term as CEO, appointed by the 5-Star Movement during Luigi Di Maio‘s tenure. Challenges for the company include concerns about transparency, as legally required, and a significant delay in publishing financial reports, with only the 2021 statement currently available. The appointed Board of Directors and of Auditors reflect a clear political alignment, including figures such as Maddalena Castellani and Gregorio Fontana.

The 2024 budget bill is undergoing parliamentary scrutiny 

The parliamentary examination of the 2024 budget bill is underway at the Senate Budget Committee. Following the customary round of hearings, the examination in the main committee has promptly commenced, and the deadline for submitting amendments has been set. The Government’s request to majority parliamentarians not to propose costly modifications during parliamentary sessions, aiming to facilitate a swift approval of the bill, continues to generate dissatisfaction. Meanwhile, international economic forecasts for Italy do not appear optimistic. The European Commission estimates a growth rate not exceeding 0.8% in 2024.

EU Stability Pact

The lengthy European negotiations on the reform of the Stability Pact continue as the Twenty-Seven seek a balanced solution. Italy‘s strategy, opposing certain safeguard measures related to the maximum allowable deficit and earmarked investments, appears to involve extending the negotiation timeline. With a ministerial meeting scheduled for December 8 focusing on the Stability Pact, the Government aims to further delay the vote on the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), a proposal Premier Meloni has consistently opposed. Currently, everything seems to be on hold. Nevertheless, all question marks regarding major issues must be resolved by year-end, including the Government’s delicate discussions on the National Recovery and Resilience Plan and its proposed modifications.

The pathways to energy cooperation between Italy and the United States

The first edition of the bilateral dialogue, facilitated by the national sections of the World Energy Council, has concluded, bringing together Italian and U.S. institutions and industries. The discussion covered various topics related to the energy transition, including critical materials, IRA subsidies, and frontier technologies. The next meeting is scheduled in Rome in 2024, during Italy’s presidency of the G7, a development closely watched by Washington. The recent dialogue marked a unique encounter between the two countries’ institutions and industries. 

The event, hosted by the Italian embassy in Washington, gained significance against the backdrop of the current energy crisis heightened by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and instability in the Middle East. The WEC, known for its triennial World Energy Congress, has become more central with the recent appointment of the U.S. representative, Mike Howard, as the global president.

The attendees included representatives from the U.S. Department of State, Department of Energy, Special Envoy for Climate, and the National Regulatory Commission. Italy was represented by figures from ARERA, Edison, Enel, Eni, Saipem, Terna. Washington closely monitors Rome’s moves, particularly considering Italy’s focus on developing new relationships with Global South countries, a priority acknowledged by the White House.

Commission tasked with Environmental Code reform

The newly formed interministerial commission tasked with reforming the Environmental Code, established by Ministers Pichetto Fratin and Casellati, aims to revise the 2006 Environmental Code, addressing issues such as pollution norms and landscape protections for new private and industrial constructions. Commission Leadership: President: Prof. Eugenio Picozza, an expert in administrative law and a lecturer at Tor Vergata. Co-President: Magistrate Pasquale Fimiani, substitute prosecutor of the Court of Cassation. The commission consists of 32 members, including experts, technicians, university professors, lawyers, engineers, and former politicians. 

Alliance for the development of small modular reactors

Italy has joined a new alliance for the development of small modular reactors (Smrs) in the field of nuclear energy. The agreement involves prominent entities such as Enea and Ansaldo Nucleare, along with international partners from Belgium, Romania, and the United States, focusing on lead cooled Smrs. The initiative, based in Brussels, aims to accelerate the progress of small modular reactors, considered a promising solution for sustainable energy generation. The consortium was formalized through a memorandum. 

The next step involves the construction of a pilot reactor in Mol, Belgium, based on a Westinghouse project, and another in Pitești, Romania. Notably, Ansaldo Nucleare has formed an alliance with Edison and Edf for Smr construction.

Italian National Strategic Hub

The Italian National Strategic Hub, awarded to a consortium led TIM with Leonardo, Sogei, and Cdp in July 2022, has faced legal challenges. The Council of State has ruled the awarding of the project to be illegitimate, citing improper exercise of the pre-emption right. Initially, the consortium, including Leonardo, Cdp, Sogei, and TIM, won the bid against Fastweb and Aruba. However, the former, as the project’s promoter, exercised the pre-emption right. The Council’s decision implies that the concession was essentially granted without a proper bidding process. The consequences of this ruling are yet to be fully assessed, with considerations for potential impacts on public funding through the National Recovery and Resilience Plan. The National Strategic Hub’s structure relies on the consortium providing cloud migration services to public administrations, supported by public vouchers from the NRRP, amounting to €900 mln.

assicurazioni generali: Scaroni leaves

Bruno Scaroni, currently the Group Chief Transformation Officer, will be leaving the Generali Group as of December 31, 2023, to pursue new professional challenges. Philippe Donnet, the CEO of Generali, expressed gratitude for Scaroni’s significant impact on Generali, contributing to the development and effectiveness of the company’s strong transformation strategy. According to recent media reports, Scaroni is rumored to take on the role of Chief Executive Officer at Zurich Italy, succeeding Giovanni Giuliani.

ENEL: Enel asset sales

Enel is expected to generate 3.7 bln euros from planned asset sales, with the largest operation involving the divestment of assets in Peru. Additional transactions are also progressing in Greece and the United States. The potential further reduction of net debt for 2023 by Enel amounts to 3.7 bln euros, including a pre-registered amount of 500 mln euros, thanks to the impending finalization of the divestments. The critical variable, influenced by the typical timing of buying and selling transactions, has led Enel’s top management to postpone the debt target announcement. This date aligns strategically with the presentation of the new strategic plan for 2024-26, the first developed under CEO Flavio Cattaneo.

ENI: Nigeria is set to withdraw its $1.1 bln compensation claim

Eni is heading towards resolution with Nigeria as the Lagos Government is set to withdraw its $1.1 bln compensation claim against the energy group led by CEO Claudio Descalzi. This marks the end of a decade-long dispute. In a letter revealed by Bloomberg, the Nigerian Ministry of Justice stated that it would withdraw its claims “unconditionally” and “with immediate effect.” Nigeria will also “irrevocably” give up “any further legal action”.

To acquire the license, Eni and Shell had paid $1.3 bln on April 29, 2011. The prosecutor had sought an eight-year sentence for Descalzi and predecessor Scaroni, based largely on false statements by former Eni executive Vincenzo Armanna. The mining project for the exploration of the offshore block in Nigeria expired in May 2021. Eni had requested its conversion into a development license “fully believing it had complied with all contractual terms, conditions, and requirements for such conversion, including timely notification to the counterparty.” With hostilities now ending, a new scenario emerges. Eni has long sought the conversion of the OPL 245 exploration license into a production permit. The company expresses readiness to take the necessary steps to unlock the development of the oil-rich area, estimated to have recoverable reserves of 560 mln barrels.

Fincantieri: Fincantieri Reports Strong Financial Results

Fincantieri has reported positive results for the third quarter ending September 30, 2023, highlighting a 60% increase in EBITDA. The company’s performance reflects the strength and resilience as it successfully executes its 2023-2027 plan, focusing on the core business of Cruise, Defense, and Offshore shipbuilding. Key financials include revenues of €5.4 bln, a slight increase from the same period in 2022 (€5.3 bln), and a notable EBITDA growth of 60%, reaching €276 mln with a margin of 5.1%. 

The Cruise business, contributing half of the total revenue, reported revenues of €2.9 bln. Noteworthy contracts in this segment include orders for two hydrogen-powered ships for the MSC Explora Journeys fleet and a hybrid propulsion Ropax ferry part of a contract with the Sicilian Region. In the Naval segment, generating a quarter of total revenue at €1.4 bln, Fincantieri witnessed increased volumes in American shipyards. Contracts for the third submarine under the U212NFS program, three Offshore Patrol Vessels, and the modernization of Italian and French Horizon-class frigates were signed.

The Offshore and Specialized Vessels sector experienced a 28.2% increase in revenues for the first nine months of 2023. EBITDA reached €31 mln, more than doubling from September 2022. Notable orders include eight Commissioning Service Operation Vessels (CSOV) and a contract for the design and construction of two hybrid CSOVs, with two more as options. In the subsea sector, Fincantieri signed a MoU with Leonardo. 

Gruppo FS: Joint venture to create new maritime terminals

FS (Ferrovie dello Stato Italiane) and MSC (Mediterranean Shipping Company) have established a joint venture to create new maritime terminals, aiming to expand the logistics network for freight transport between ports in Italy and the rest of Europe. The memorandum of understanding outlines plans to enhance intermodal connectivity between maritime and rail transport, fostering synergies to broaden the logistics network for goods transportation to and from Italian and European ports. Key points of the agreement include the formation of a new company controlled by Mercitalia Logistics (51%) and participated in by MEDLOG (49%), an MSC group company specializing in intermodality and logistics. The new entity’s objective is to design, build, and manage new freight terminals within the sites of both groups in Italy.

Leonardo: Leonardo strategic direction

In a parliamentary hearing, Roberto Cingolani, CEO of Leonardo, emphasized the company’s pivotal moment and outlined its strategic direction. Leonardo is actively pursuing alliances to create European hubs, engaging in due diligence with international banks to assess potential sales and acquisitions. Cingolani highlighted the importance of digitalization, especially in chip and cloud supply chains, where reliance on external sources poses security challenges.

Leonardo aims to play a significant role in shaping the European security space and is exploring joint ventures on a large scale. Cingolani mentioned that specific details of Leonardo’s new direction would be disclosed in the upcoming industrial plan, scheduled for presentation on February 24.

Cingolani stressed the need for European defense industry consolidation, advocating for collaboration among national giants to create synergistic European entities capable of competing with global counterparts. Additionally, he confirmed ongoing discussions with Thales to increase Leonardo’s stake in the Thales Alenia Space joint venture. The CEO mentioned the revival of the Space Alliance with Thales to counter global competitors like SpaceX. Cingolani expressed concerns about the potential disappearance of European players without collaboration. 

Regarding collaboration with Fincantieri, Cingolani announced a renewed partnership, emphasizing the need for internal cooperation in challenging external circumstances. The companies are working on a well-structured industrial agreement, leveraging their expertise in shipbuilding and aerospace. Cingolani also provided positive news about the aerostructures division, indicating a path to break-even by the end of 2025 despite the significant impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on aircraft orders. 

TIM: NetCo closer, ServCo’s knot remains

In the dynamic landscape of Telecom Italia, several significant developments are shaping the narrative. Fitch has responded to TIM’s board approval of the binding offer, deciding to place the company’s rating on “Rating Watch Positive” (RWP). This decision reflects Fitch’s expectations of significantly reduced financial risk after the completion of the sale and debt repayment. S&P Global Ratings has also put TIM’s rating under observation for a potential upgrade considering the board’s approval of KKR’s offer for NetCo. Moody’s, too, has taken similar action, stating that if the NetCo sale is completed as expected, the expected 14 bln euros reduction in net debt will significantly improve TIM’s financial profile. Meanwhile, Italy’s financial market regulator, Consob, has focused its attention on Merlyn Partners SCSp and RN Capital Partners, entities that sought to obstruct the sale of NetCo to KKR. 

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