The primary contenders in the European elections engaged in their inaugural debate, addressing a diverse range of issues such as the Green Deal, the Israel-Hamas conflict, irregular migration, artificial intelligence, and even the influence of platforms like TikTok. The Maastricht debate, jointly organized by Politico Europe and Studio Europa on the 29 of April, lasted ninety minutes and witnessed a dynamic exchange of political ideas, ranging from impassioned to awkward moments. On stage stood the so-called Spitzenkandidaten, vying to lead the European Commission post the June elections: Ursula von der Leyen (European People’s Party), Nicolas Schmit (Party of European Socialists), Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party), Bas Eickhout (European Green Party), Anders Vistisen (Identity and Democracy Party), Walter Baier (Party of the European Left), Maylis Roßberg (European Free Alliance), and Valeriu Ghilețchi (European Christian Political Movement). Each participant was afforded the chance to showcase their platform, although some were more successful in seizing the spotlight than others. The Commission President maintained a cautious stance concerning the formation of alliances with the European Conservatives and Reformists group, a coalition that encompasses parties such as the Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party, “It depends very much on how the composition of the parliament is and who is in what group,” von der Leyen explained. The ECR, absent from the Maastricht debate, has criticized the EU’s green deal as sometimes “dogmatic, anti-economic, and antisocial”. While eight candidates participated in the debate with aspirations to lead the European Commission, von der Leyen is seen as the frontrunner.
During the 90-minute debate, she displayed a more impassioned side than her usual scripted public persona, particularly on issues like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza conflict. She dismissed a suggestion from radical left candidate Walter Baier that negotiation could end the Ukraine war, expressing frustration: “I am getting tired of hearing that,” she said, recalling her visits to Ukraine and the casualties in places like Bucha. “If you want to end this war, Putin just has to stop fighting and then the war is over.” In response to criticism from the left concerning the EU’s stance on Israel during the Gaza conflict, she upheld Israel’s right to self-defense within the framework of humanitarian and international law. However, she also conveyed deep regret over the tragic loss of innocent lives, particularly among children. Addressing criticism of the EU’s green deal, she countered accusations from the Green’s lead candidate, Dutch MEP Bas Eickhout, by inviting dialogue rather than polarization. Ultimately, EU leaders will choose the next European Commission president, but the candidate must garner support from a majority of MEPs. In 2019, at the urging of France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, EU leaders bypassed the Spitzenkandidaten process, selecting von der Leyen instead of the EPP’s victorious lead candidate Manfred Weber.
With just two months remaining before the European elections, there’s a wealth of new information available. For instance, all the Spitzenkandidaten have been announced: Ursula von der Leyen (European People’s Party), Nicolas Schmit (Party of European Socialists), Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party), Bas Eickhout (European Green Party), Walter Baier (Party of the European Left).
The dominant group overall continues to be the center-right European People’s Party (EPP), which has secured an additional three seats, raising its total to 184, marking its highest tally since January 2021. Trailing closely behind is the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), which has encountered a setback of five seats, diminishing its count to 135, marking its lowest figure since October 2022. Renew Europe (RE), the centrist-liberal group has gained five seats in the projection, now totaling 87, positioning it as the third largest group once again. Together, these three parties, known for their informal coalition in the European Parliament, now hold sway over 406 out of 705 seats, establishing a comfortable absolute majority with five more seats than the previous month. On the right end of the political spectrum, both factions experienced setbacks in March. Identity and Democracy (ID) fell by 10 seats to 82, relinquishing most of its gains from the past six months. Meanwhile, the national conservative European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) now holds 81 seats, two fewer than last month. On the left, the Greens/European Free Alliance (G/EFA) is predicted to secure 52 seats, three more than last month, while the GUE/NGL (LEFT) is projected to gain 47 seats, two more than in February. The Non-Inscrits (NI) would see a gain of four seats, reaching 48, and the parties not (yet) affiliated are expected to maintain four seats, consistent with last month’s figures.
With the European Parliament elections looming, attention shifts to the Spitzenkandidaten – the designated candidates of parties competing for the top position.
But what exactly is a Spitzenkandidat? In German, it translates to “lead candidate.” In the EU context, it denotes the chosen candidate of a European political party for the role of European Commission president. These parties, representing similar political ideologies across nations, nominate a candidate to represent their collective vision and potentially become the next Commission president.
How does the Spitzenkandidat system function? Following the parliamentary elections, the European party able to form a majority governing coalition typically sees its Spitzenkandidat elevated to Commission President. The European Council nominates a candidate for the presidency, considering the European Parliament elections. It’s generally expected that the candidate from the party securing the most seats will be prioritized. The candidate then undergoes a vote in the European Parliament, requiring a majority for confirmation. Failure to secure this majority prompts the European Council to propose a new candidate within a month, subject to the same procedure.
Who’s the favored spitzenkandidat? Ursula von der Leyen, the incumbent President of the European Commission, announced her intention to seek a second term in February. She’s anticipated to receive a formal endorsement as the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) Spitzenkandidat during the group’s March conference.
The European Union (EU) stands at a pivotal juncture, confronted with the decision between significant reform and potential stagnation. This dilemma serves as the focal point for Mario Draghi, former president of the European Central Bank and former Prime Minister of Italy, as he undertakes the task of preparing a high-level report on the EU’s competitiveness. Amidst this critical juncture, he is emerging as a beacon of reform. Recognized for his adept management of the European debt crisis and his efforts in safeguarding the euro throughout his tenure, Draghi’s leadership holds the potential to play a pivotal role in navigating the European Union through the contemporary geopolitical challenges, as noted by the Atlantic Council. Central to Draghi’s agenda is his forthcoming report on EU competitiveness, commissioned by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Expected after the European Parliament elections on 6-9 June, the report promises a frank assessment of Europe’s weaknesses and recommendations for improvement. Brussels must heed its findings and may well elevate Draghi to the presidency of the European Council to implement its prescriptions for a more integrated and competitive EU. Draghi underscores Europe’s pressing imperative to enhance its economic and technological prowess to effectively compete on a global scale. He identifies existing deficiencies within Europe in comparison to economic giants like the United States and China. Nevertheless, he also perceives substantial opportunities for Europe to rectify these shortcomings, advocating for increased fiscal integration, public debt management, and defense cooperation to bolster the EU’s standing on the international stage. Many observers believe that Draghi could be the ideal candidate for the role of European Council President, given his leadership qualities and vision for the future of the EU. Despite his reluctance to publicly accept a European post, Draghi’s influence within key European parties such as the European People’s Party (EPP), the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and Renew Europe (RE) cannot be underestimated. In the aftermath of the elections, the distribution of power among European parties will shape the nominations for pivotal EU positions. Draghi’s candidacy might encounter resistance, especially from parties cautious about endorsing his suggested reforms. Nonetheless, the potential for him to offer transformative leadership and guide the EU toward a more promising future cannot be overlooked.
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