11/05/2024

Haizum’s EU Election Outlook

In preparation for the 2024 EU elections, this weekly analysis provides a concise overview of key elements such as current issues, electoral trends, leading candidates and their programmatic priorities. This concise look will give you a clear insight into key dynamics that will have a significant impact on the upcoming elections in the European Union.

Topics of the week
2024 European Elections: Are Domestic Concerns Overshadowing the European Agenda at the Polls?

The European elections of 2024 are taking place against the backdrop of numerous national elections within EU countries, leading to concerns that the significance of the European elections may be diminished. In France, the far-right lead candidate Jordan Bardella of the Le Pen party is framing the European election as a litmus test for President Macron’s policies. Historically, European elections have been considered “second-order national elections,” serving as a barometer for national political sentiment, particularly when they coincide with the midpoint of a presidential term.

The European election in France is attracting particular attention as it precedes the next presidential election in 2027. Conducted under national rules, these elections often prompt voters to focus on domestic interests over European matters. Current national concerns, such as the rising cost of energy and inflation, are overshadowing European issues like the functioning of EU institutions and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

In Belgium and Austria, national elections are scheduled to occur simultaneously with the European elections, while recent national elections in Poland and the Czech Republic have resulted in significant political shifts. Despite crises that have brought the European Union into the spotlight, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, national issues continue to dominate the electoral agenda. Many voters view the European elections as an opportunity to voice their support or opposition to their national governments.

The challenges of our era are increasingly European or even global in nature, making it challenging to address national issues without considering the European context. Issues such as immigration and agricultural policy, traditionally seen as national matters, are now being debated in the framework of European elections. This intertwining of national and European issues reflects the complex reality of governance in an interconnected world, where the decisions made at the European level have direct implications for national politics and vice versa.

The AfD, plagued by scandals, has become problematic as a partner for Marine Le Pen.

Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) is reconsidering its partnership with Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) amidst ongoing scandals, particularly espionage allegations against AfD’s lead candidate Maximilian Krah. This situation has led to speculation that RN may seek new allies in the European Parliament after the upcoming elections. During a recent public event, Jordan Bardella of RN avoided questions about the AfD, highlighting his party’s vigilance and opposition to foreign interference. Marine Le Pen has been known for her connections with authoritarian regimes, including a notable meeting with Vladimir Putin in 2017.

The controversies involving Krah and his associates are at odds with Le Pen’s efforts to present herself as a leading figure in Europe. The German allies seem to be more of a liability than an asset to her image. The relationship further soured when Krah supported Éric Zemmour over Le Pen in the French presidential campaign, resulting in his temporary suspension from the faction.

The rift deepened when AfD members discussed mass deportations, prompting Le Pen to demand explanations from AfD’s Alice Weidel. A subsequent meeting between the two did not resolve the tensions, as Weidel refused to publicly disavow the “remigration” plans. Additionally, AfD’s parliamentary inquiry about the status of Mayotte and Germany’s stance on international law only added to the strain.

Despite these challenges, both RN and AfD are expected to gain votes in the June elections, potentially making them key players in a right-wing coalition. However, AfD’s affinity for Russia and its flirtation with a potential EU exit (“Dexit”) have led to its growing isolation within Brussels’ political circles. The future of RN’s alliances post-election remains uncertain, with potential partners like Viktor Orban’s Fidesz and Poland’s PiS being considered.

Election trends

Source: Politpro

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Contact

hello@haizum.eu

P. IVA 12561140968

Via Pattari, 6, 20122 Milano MI

Proud member of

© 2022 Created by ABCPRODUCTION.digital