President Donald J. Trump delivered an address to a joint session of Congress—it was historic in several ways. Citing persistent inflationary pressures and a decelerating growth trajectory, the Federal Reserve revised its economic projections and held rates steady. The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) recently unveiled the 2025 Trade Policy Agenda, outlining the Administration’s trade strategy while Trump initiates wide-ranging tariffs against trading partners. The administration released a wide-ranging Executive Order on critical minerals. US markets have entered “correction” territory, wiping out the gains seen since Trump’s election. The House and Senate must reconcile their competing versions of a budget resolution to trigger the reconciliation process, which will serve as the vehicle for advancing much of Trump’s legislative agenda. Tensions have been escalating between Elon Musk and members of President Donald Trump’s cabinet about Musk’s activities under the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The United States Agency for International Development, an agency established by President John F. Kennedy to unify several foreign assistance organizations and programs under one department, has effectively been shuttered by DOGE.
On March 4, President Donald Trump delivered a historic address to a joint session of Congress, marking his first major speech of his second term. The address, lasting 1 hour and 40 minutes, was the longest in modern history. Hours before the President’s address, the White House released a list of “47 Accomplishments” on issues ranging from the border to the economy, foreign policy, and Elon Musk’s efforts under the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) – areas that reflected key themes in the speech. The speech elicited strong reactions from both sides of the aisle, with Republicans praising his promises and Democrats expressing their disdain through interruptions, protests, and walkouts.
Trump emphasized his administration’s swift actions on economic policy, signing nearly 100 executive orders and over 400 executive actions within the first six weeks. He highlighted efforts to reduce inflation, address high energy prices, and implement significant tax cuts. The President also addressed foreign policy and national security, announcing the development of a “Golden Dome Missile Defense Shield” to enhance national defense. He also discussed initiatives to revitalize US shipbuilding and strengthen the military. Addressing international concerns, Trump mentioned efforts to apprehend terrorists and pursue peace in Ukraine. The President also repeated aspirations to reclaim the Panama Canal, explore control over Greenland, and even plant the American flag on Mars, reflecting bold geopolitical and space exploration goals. Immigration and border security have always been a focus for Trump. In the speech, Trump highlighted his administration’s efforts to secure the southern border, asserting that these measures have effectively reduced the number of illegal border crossings. He also announced plans to expand the Migrant Operations Center at Guantanamo Bay to accommodate up to 30,000 migrants, aiming to enhance detention capabilities for individuals unlawfully present in the United States.
In its latest assessment, the Federal Reserve highlighted the escalating uncertainties that are impacting the US economic outlook. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meeting on March 18-19, opted to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, acknowledging persistent inflationary pressures and a decelerating growth trajectory. Revised projections indicate a downward adjustment in real GDP growth for 2025, now anticipated at 1.7%, a decline from the previous estimate of 2.1%. Concurrently, the inflation forecast has been elevated to 2.7%, surpassing the earlier 2.5% projection despite the most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing prices rising 2.8%, down from 3% the prior month. These adjustments have intensified concerns about potential stagflation—a scenario characterized by stagnant growth and elevated inflation. The Fed attributes these economic headwinds partly to ongoing trade policy uncertainties, notably tariffs, which are exerting upward pressure on consumer prices. Despite these challenges, the FOMC’s “dot plot” continues to suggest the possibility of two interest rate cuts later in the year, reflecting a nuanced approach to balancing growth stimulation against inflation control. In a press conference following the FOMC meetings, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a patient and data-driven approach to future policy decisions, underscoring the heightened uncertainty clouding the economic landscape.
The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) recently unveiled the 2025 Trade Policy Agenda, outlining the Administration’s strategy to address current economic and national security challenges. Central to this agenda is the emphasis on fostering a “Production Economy,” which prioritizes domestic manufacturing, agriculture, services, and knowledge sectors. The Administration believes that supporting a Production Economy will contribute to higher wages and overall economic prosperity. The agenda also highlights the Administration’s intent to rebalance international trade relationships to better serve American workers and businesses. This involves renegotiating existing trade agreements and implementing tariffs (see next section) to protect US industries, aiming to rectify trade imbalances and ensure fair competition. Additionally, the USTR plans to enhance enforcement of US trade laws to promote more resilient supply chains, particularly in critical sectors such as textiles and apparel. This approach is designed to strengthen domestic industries and reduce reliance on foreign supply chains.
In the past month, President Donald Trump has implemented significant tariff measures affecting major US trading partners, with additional actions scheduled in the near future. On February 1, President Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, as well as a 10% tariff on imports from China. These measures were justified under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), citing national security concerns related to illegal immigration and drug trafficking. Notably, Canadian energy exports, including oil and natural gas, were subjected to a reduced tariff rate of 10%. On February 13, President Trump signed a Presidential Memorandum directing the development of a “Fair and Reciprocal Plan” on trade. This initiative aims to align US tariffs with those imposed by other countries on American products, potentially altering tariff structures with multiple trade partners, including the EU, with an effective date of April 2 —a date the President has referred to as “Liberation Day.” In early March, the President proceeded with implementing the previously announced tariffs on Canada and Mexico, emphasizing the need to combat the extraordinary threat to US national security posed by unchecked drug trafficking. The US also imposed 25% tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum. This action eliminated previous exemptions and raised the aluminum tariff from 10% to 25%, aiming to bolster domestic production capabilities. These measures have a significant impact on EU exporters, as many European firms are major suppliers of these metals to the US On March 13, President Trump announced a potential 200% tariff on alcoholic beverages imported from the EU. This threat was issued in response to the EU’s proposed 50% tariff on American whiskey, which would escalate trade tensions between the two economies. These developments underscore a period of heightened trade tensions, with the potential for significant impacts on global economic dynamics and domestic markets.
On March 20, President Trump signed an executive order titled “Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production,” invoking the Defense Production Act (DPA) to bolster domestic production of critical minerals essential for national security and technological advancement. The order utilizes the DPA to prioritize and accelerate the extraction and processing of critical minerals, aiming to reduce US dependence on foreign sources, particularly China. Beyond traditional rare earth elements, the order includes minerals such as copper, uranium, potash, gold, and potentially coal, recognizing their significance in various industrial and defense applications. Federal agencies are directed to expedite the review and approval of mining projects, with the goal of reducing regulatory barriers and promoting domestic mineral production. The order authorizes the allocation of funds and loans to support the development of mining and processing facilities, enhancing the competitiveness of US mineral producers. This executive order represents a strategic move to secure critical mineral resources vital for the nation’s defense, technology, and economic sectors, reflecting a comprehensive approach to strengthening domestic supply chains.
US markets have entered “correction” territory, defined as a decline of 10% or more from recent highs. The S&P 500 index closed down over 10% from its February 19 closing high, officially marking a correction. Following President Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 experienced modest gains, nearing record highs set in early December 2024. Despite early optimism, the S&P 500 has declined by approximately 6.4% since the inauguration, falling from 5,996.66 to 5,614.56. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has also experienced significant downturns, including a drop of over 1,000 points amid rising recession fears. The NASDAQ, dominated by tech firms, has fallen by 12%. The administration’s trade policies, particularly the implementation of tariffs, have introduced economic and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to simultaneous declines in both US equities and the dollar—a rare occurrence. Rising inflation has affected consumer sentiment and spending, contributing to market volatility. Finally, investors are increasingly skeptical about the US economy’s ability to outperform its peers, leading to diversification away from US assets
The House and Senate are racing to pass a budget resolution that will trigger the reconciliation process, serving as the vehicle for advancing much of Trump’s legislative agenda. Passing a budget resolution is the first step in the reconciliation process. This particular parliamentary process is considered essential to passing Trump’s policy agenda as it allows Congress to pass significant policy changes related to spending, revenue, or the debt limit under an expedited process needing only a simple majority vote for passage (rather than requiring 60 in the Senate votes to end debate and thus circumventing Democratic opposition in the Senate). Early on February 21, the Senate passed their resolution by a 52-48 vote. This measure aims to allocate approximately $342 billion over four years, with a primary focus on border security and military funding. The breakdown includes $175 billion for border security, $150 billion for the Department of Defense, and $20 billion for the Coast Guard. The passage of this resolution followed an extensive overnight session known as a “vote-a-rama,” during which numerous amendments were proposed and debated. Democrats introduced over 20 amendments addressing issues such as housing, energy costs, tax breaks for the wealthy, support for Ukraine, and funding for Medicaid and Medicare. Most of these amendments were defeated along party lines. Senate Republicans say they are pursuing a two-bill strategy in order to address border security priorities quickly and wait to resolve contentious disputes over tax cuts and raising the debt ceiling.
The House, however, is pursuing a one-bill strategy and will try to pass one “big beautiful bill.” On February 25, the House narrowly approved its fiscal year 2025 budget resolution by a vote of 217-215. The vote saw unanimous Democratic opposition and dissent from one Republican member. This resolution directs the House Ways and Means Committee to propose tax law changes that could increase federal deficits by up to $4.5 trillion over the next decade. Simultaneously, it instructs other House committees to identify at least $1.5 trillion in federal spending cuts. This resolution also permits a $4 trillion increase in the debt ceiling.
The differing priorities and internal disagreements suggest that reconciling the House and Senate versions may be challenging, potentially affecting the timeline for enacting the final budget legislation. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-ND) made it clear that he does not intend to put the House budget resolution on the floor before the Senate’s expected mid-March break on March 24.
Tensions have been escalating between Elon Musk and members of President Donald Trump’s cabinet concerning the operations of DOGE. Established in early 2025 and housed within the former United States Digital Service, DOGE aims to streamline federal government operations and reduce expenditures. However, its methods and Musk’s expansive influence have sparked controversy and resistance within the administration. Musk’s approach was notably aggressive; he deployed DOGE teams across various federal departments, gaining access to sensitive data and making unilateral decisions. One of the most significant actions was the shutdown of the United States Agency for International Development (see following section). Musk’s assertive measures have raised alarms among key cabinet members. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick expressed unease over DOGE’s expansive reach, Secretary of State Marco Rubio blew up at Musk during a recent Cabinet meeting, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has reportedly had tense encounters with Musk’s team. Legal experts and some cabinet officials have also questioned the constitutionality of DOGE’s actions.
The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has historically played a pivotal role in administering US foreign aid and development programs worldwide. However, recent actions by the Department of Global Engagement (DOGE), under the leadership of Elon Musk, have led to significant changes in USAID’s operations and prompted multiple legal challenges. On Inauguration Day, January 20, President Trump signed Executive Order 14169, titled “Reevaluating and Realigning United States Foreign Aid.” This order initiated a 90-day suspension of all US foreign development assistance programs to conduct a comprehensive review, citing concerns that existing aid programs were misaligned with American interests and values. The administration’s review led to the termination of over 90% of USAID’s foreign aid contracts, amounting to approximately $60 billion in cuts. This action effectively immobilized the agency’s operations, resulting in the cancellation of thousands of grants and awards. In a move to consolidate foreign aid efforts, the administration announced plans to merge USAID with the State Department. This restructuring aimed to align aid programs more closely with geopolitical interests and streamline operations. A federal judge issued a preliminary injunction blocking the administration’s attempt to dismantle USAID, ruling that such actions likely violated constitutional provisions. The court mandated the restoration of access for USAID employees and halted further actions against the agency without proper authorization. These actions have raised questions about the future direction of US international development efforts.
Department of Commerce – Paul Dabbar is the nominee for deputy secretary. Jeffrey Kessler was confirmed as Undersecretary for Industry and Security. John Squires is the nominee for Undersecretary for Intellectual Property and Director of the United States Patent and Trademark Office. Taylor Jordan is the nominee for Assistant Secretary for Environmental Observation and Predication. The Assistant Secretary for Legislative and Intergovernmental Affairs is Harry Kumar.
Department of Defense – President Donald Trump dismissed Charles Q. Brown Jr., the nominee for Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is retired Air Force Lieutenant General Dan “Razin” Caine. This is the nation’s highest-ranking military officer and the principal military advisor to the president. Michael Cadenazzi is the nominee Assistant Secretary for Industrial-Base Policy. The Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs nominee is Daniel Zimmerman.
Department of Education – Linda McMahon was confirmed as Secretary. Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Office of Legislation and Congressional Affairs is Sarah Ursprung. Hayley Sanon is the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary at the Office of Elementary and Secondary Education. Steven Schaefer is the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Policy in the Office for Civil Rights. Madi Biedermann is the Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Office of Communications and Outreach.
Department of Energy – James Danly is the nominee to be Deputy Secretary. The General Counsel is Jonathan Brightbill. John Sneed will be the Director of the Loans Programs Office. Catherine Jereza is the nominee for Assistant Secretary for Electricity. Tim Walsh is the nominee for Assistant Secretary for Environmental Management.
Department of Homeland Security – Troy Edgar was confirmed as Deputy Secretary. Joseph Edlow is the nominee for Director of US Citizenship and Immigration Services. James Percival is the nominee for General Counsel. Sean Plankey is the nominee for Director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. Matthew Kozma is the nominee for Undersecretary for Intelligence and Analysis.
Department of Housing and Urban Development – Andrew Hughes was nominated for Deputy Secretary. General Counsel will be David Woll.
Department of Justice – Todd Blanche was confirmed as Deputy Attorney General. Terry Cole is the nominee for Administrator of the Drug Enforcement Administration. Gail Slater was confirmed as Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust. The following Assistant Attorney General nominations have been announced: John Eisenberg for the National Security Division, Harmeet Dhillon for Civil Rights, Brett Shumate for the Civil Division, and Aaron Reitz for Legal Policy. The Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney General in the Civil Division is Yaakov Roth.
Department of Labor – Lori Chavez-DeRemer was confirmed as Secretary. Keith Sonderling was confirmed as Deputy Secretary. Wayne Palmer is the nominee for Assistant Secretary for Mine Safety and Health. Dean A. Heyl is the Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs.
Department of State – Michael George DeSombre is the nominee for Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs. Andrew Veprek is the nominee for Assistant Secretary of State for Population, Refugees, and Migration. The following Ambassadorial nominations were transmitted to the Senate: John Arrigo for the Portuguese Republic; Thomas Barrack for Turkey; Lynda Blanchard to the United Nations Agencies for Food and Agriculture; Brian Burch to the Holy See; Leah Campos for the Dominican Republic; Somers Farkas to the Republic of Malta; Tilman Fertitta to the Italian Republic; Brandon Judd for the Republic of Chile; Nicole McGraw to the Republic of Croatia; Andrew Puzder for the European Union; Leandro Rizzuto to the Organization of American States. Adam Boehler’s nomination as Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs was withdrawn—he will still serve in the Administration.
Department of Transportation – Steven G. Bradbury was confirmed as Deputy Secretary.
Department of the Treasury – Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence nominee is John Hurley. John York is the nominee for Assistant Secretary for Management. Julia Hahn is the Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs. The Deputy Comptroller of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency is Rodney Hood. Alexandria Smith is Deputy Assistant Secretary for Community and Economic Development. The Deputy Assistant Secretary for Capital Markets is Ethan Fallang. JR Gibbens is an Advisor to the Secretary. Tyler Williams, Derek Theurer, and Gene Lange have been named as Counselor to the Secretary. The acting General Counsel is Christopher Pilkerton. The Executive Secretary is Tyler Badgley.
Export-Import Bank – Jovan Jovanovic was nominated to be President.
Securities and Exchange Commission – The SEC’s new Crypto Task Force will be led by Chief of Staff Richard Gabbert. Crypto Task Force’s Chief Counsel is Michael Selig, Taylor Asher is the Chief Policy Advisor, and Sumeera Younis is the Chief of Operations.
White House – Stephen Miran was confirmed as the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors. Oliver McPherson-Smith is the Director of the National Energy Dominance Council.
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