The Haizum Italian Insider Report is a monthly news service that monitors the most relevant issues in Italy. This document focuses on political, Economic, and Strategic matters, considering the role of Italy within the European Union, the MENA region, and Transatlantic Relations. The report will deliver clever insights by leveraging Haizum’s deep connections in the national institutional ecosystem.
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Italy’s political and economic landscape in November 2025 was defined by steady governance, fiscal prudence, and strategic initiatives at home and abroad. The Meloni government navigated the finalization of its 2026 Budget, forging coalition compromises on key measures, while upholding a disciplined deficit target. This approach earned endorsement from Brussels, where the EU Commission deemed Italy’s budget compliant with EU fiscal rules, and culminated in a historic agreement with the EU to recalibrate Italy’s post-pandemic recovery plan. Parliament’s passage of a landmark justice reform in October set the stage for an upcoming confirmatory referendum on separating judicial careers, while President Sergio Mattarella urged urging unity and constitutional fidelity.
Strategically, Italy bolstered its defence posture and alliances. The government advanced plans to expand military readiness even as NATO partners noted Italy’s need to boost defence spending. Italian diplomacy was highly visible: Rome hosted a first-ever intergovernmental summit with Albania, yielding 16 agreements to deepen cooperation. In European fora, Italy pushed for faster returns processes and a common “safe countries” list to curb irregular flows, while insisting that offshore migrant centers become a pillar of EU strategy. Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani balanced Italy’s staunch support for Israel’s security with calls for an urgent humanitarian truce in Gaza.
Economically, Italy’s prudent policies continued to bear fruit. Key rating agencies had upgraded Italy earlier in 2025, and in November the 10-year bond spread over Germany tightened to its lowest level in years reflecting investor confidence. Growth remained modest with inflation trending near 3.5%, but the government’s mix of tax cuts, investment incentives, and EU-funded projects underpinned hopes of a gradual upswing. Italy’s major strategic companies, from energy giants to banks, railways, insurers, and defence contractors, reported robust results and pursued international partnerships in line with government priorities, reinforcing the country’s economic resilience.
The government ended November by pushing the Budget Law for 2026 through parliamentary scrutiny. To overcome coalition disputes over the €18 billion package, Prime Minister Meloni met majority leaders and secured compromises on short-term rental rules, an expanded first-home tax exemption for (ISEE) families, and revised dividend taxation. To fund additional measures, the coalition approved a supplemental bank levy on large lenders and small “package delivery” fee. After the finance committee removed more than 100 inadmissible amendments, the budget advanced toward a mid-December Senate vote. Meloni praised it as “serious and balanced”, emphasizing support for middle-class households, businesses and hiring incentives, and stronger healthcare, while keeping the deficit below 3%.
Italy’s credibility in Brussels was also reinforced. On November 25, the European Commission confirmed that the draft budget 2026 complies with EU fiscal rules, staying within the net spending growth limits and avoiding an excessive-deficit procedure. Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti welcome the approval as evidence of Italy’s prudent course.
Alongside the budget, Rome secured a major success on the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR). On November 27, the EU Council approved Italy’s revised plan, preserving the full €194.4 billion allocation and reallocating €13.5 billion toward more feasible and strategic projects. EU Commission Vice-President Raffaele Fitto called the outcome “an important step”, while Meloni said it confirms the government’s credible management of the PNRR. The decision unlocks Italy’s eighth tranche of NextGenEU funds, €12.8 billion, bringing total disbursements to €153 billion.
Domestically, Meloni presented the outcome as evidence of Italy’s stronger position in Europe. Meanwhile, tensions rose with the judiciary after the Court of Auditors suspended the Messing Bridge project. Meloni denounced the move as “intolerable interference”, and ministers hinted at legal or legislative measures to curb what they view as a technocratic overreach. Meloni stressed that structural reforms, including administrative and judicial reforms, must accompany investment, to secure long-term growth.
The constitutional reform to separate Italy’s judicial and prosecutorial careers entered its decisive phase. After Parliament approved the measure on October 30, it now requires confirmation through a referendum in 2026. On November 18, the Court of Cassation’s referendum office validated the petitions submitted by both majority and opposition lawmakers and finalized the referendumquestion, which ask voter to approve the new constitutional law reorganizing the judiciary and creating a separate disciplinary court. President Mattarella is expected to call the vote by mid-January, with the referendum likely taking place by later March 2026. As with all constitutional referendums, no turnout quorum applies.
The judicial community remains strongly opposed. The National Magistrates Association (ANM) warns that splitting careers, along with establishing two separate High Council of the Judiciary, would weaken judicial independence and risk greater political influence over prosecutors. Conversely, Italy’s criminal lawyer, long-time supporters of the reform, have launched a “yes” committee, arguing that clearer professional tracks will enhance impartiality, prevent conflicts of interest, and better safeguard defendants’ rights. Justice Minister Carlo Nordio, a former prosecutor, continues to defend the reform as a necessary modernization that will deliver “fairer” and more efficient justice. He has pledged accompanying legislation to reinforce check and balances, including transparent rules for judicial assignments. Italy is preparing for a high-stakes campaign that will test competing visions of autonomy and accountability within the justice system. The referendum outcome, expected in spring 2026, will shape not only this reform but also the broader debate over the balance of powers in Italy’s constitutional framework.
President Sergio Mattarella continued to embody stability and national unity in November, combining solemn commemorations with discreet guidance to Italy’s political class. Domestically, he focused on Italy’s provincial authorities. At the 38ᵗʰ National Assembly of Italian Provinces (UPI) in Lecce on November 25, he urged lawmakers to resolve the “unfinished transition” from the 2014 reform, which reduced provincial powers without completing the intended constitutional changes. He stressed that provinces remain “fundamental elements” and called for clear legislation on their role, funding, and elections, warning that uncertainty undermine coordination and service delivery. On November 4ᵗʰ (National Unity and Armed Forces Day), Mattarella presided over ceremonies in Rome, honoring Italy’s fallen and emphasizing that peace cannot be taken for granted. He highlighted the need for well-equipped armed forces capable of defending international law amid instability.
Internationally, Mattarella reinforced Italy’s commitment to peace and multilateralism. On November 16, he visited Berlin with German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier for Germany’s National Day of Mourning, marking Europe’s wartime legacy. Addressing the Bundestag, he stressed that sovereignty never justify aggression and that true honor lies in safeguarding peace, while also highlighting Italian German reconciliation and shared European responsibility.
In November, Italy took notable steps to strengthen its defence capabilities and adapt to evolving security challenges. Defence Minister Guido Crosetto proposed reintroducing a voluntary military service for young Italians.
Announced at a NATO ministerial in Paris, the plan envisions training up to 10,000 volunteer reservists in specialized skills, including cyber defence, infrastructure protection, and disaster response, who could be mobilized during emergencies or hybrid warfare. Crosetto emphasized the service will remain fully voluntary and complement Italy’s professional armed forces, which have seen declining manpower over the past two decades. The proposal coincides with Italy’s broader push to “harden” its defence posture. The 2026 defence budget is expected to rise 1.5-1.6% of GDP, moving closer to NATO 2% target.
Officials reaffirm Italy’s commitment to increase defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035, with an additional 1.5% devoted to broader security initiatives.
Italy also deepened its international defence cooperation. On November 13, Rome hosted the inaugural Italy–Albania intergovernmental summit, where Crosetto and Albanian Defence Minister Pirro Vengu signed a bilateral defence agreement enhancing maritime security, air defence, cyber capabilities, and interoperability. The summit also saw a naval industry deal: Fincantieri will establish a joint shipbuilding and maintenance venture in Albania, supporting both civilians and military needs. Italy further advanced European and global partnerships. Officials engaged in EU “Defence Union” discussion, prompting coordinated procurement and a stringer European pillar within NATO. Italian defence firms expanded international collaboration, including Leonardo’s new partnerships with Germany’s Rheinmetall and Turkey’s Baykar to develop next-generation combat drones. Overall, November highlighted Italy’s dual approach: reinforcing hard power through investment in personnel and equipment, while strengthening alliances and industrial partnership to enhance collective security and readiness.
Italian diplomacy in November 2025 was active on multiple fronts, blending European leadership with Mediterranean engagement and transatlantic outreach. Migration remained at the top of Italy’s European agenda. Prime Minister Meloni leveraged the momentum from October’s informal EU meeting to push for progress on the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum. At the Italy-Albania summit on November 13, she highlighted Italy’s pilot “Migration protocol” with Albania as a model, calling for fast-track procedures, mutual recognition of deportation order, and the ability to transfer migrants to safe third countries. Italy also pushed for final agreement on the ReturnsRegulation and on a common list of “safe origin” countries, aiming to deter irregular flows and curb smuggling. The summit with Albania also produced 16 bilateral agreements covering infrastructure, energy, defense and culture. Key initiatives included Terna’s grid modernization projects, Fincantieri’s naval shipyard joint venture with Albania. Italy reaffirmed backing for the Berlin Process and an EU-Western Balkan summit to accelerate regional cooperation.
In the Mediterranean and Middle East, Italy balanced solidarity with allies and humanitarian responsibility. Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani reaffirmed Israel’s right to self-defence while pressing for humanitarian pauses to allow aid into Gaza. Italy contributed through airlifts of food, medicine, and supplies, supported UN resolutions protecting civilians, and engaged with Egypt, Qatar, and other actors to facilitate aid and mediation, including efforts to address regional tensions involving Iran.
As winter approached, Italy’s energy security position remained strong, capping a year of successful diversification away from Russian supplies. National gas storage was still above 90% full in early November, supported by imports from North Africa and record LNG inflows. Expanded LNG terminals have turned Italy into a European “gas gateway”, allowing it to meet domestic demand comfortably, stabilize prices, and maintain a narrow PSV-TTF spread.
Energy Minister Pichetto Fratin confirmed Italy is on track to fully replace Russian natural gas by the end of 2025.
Infrastructure and transition projects advanced. Terna (the grid operator) strengthened north-south transmission corridors, demonstrating improved grid resilience power resilience during late-November storms. The Italy–Montenegro power interconnector progressed, with plans to double capacity to 1 GW by 2028, enabling greater integration of Western Balkans renewables.
Additional EU RepowerEU funds were allocated to “Mattei Plan” for renewable projects in Africa, linking energy transition to climate and migration goals.
Domestic renewables also grew steadily: 2025 is on pace for ~4 GW of new solar PV, with solar and renewable briefly supplying 42% of Italy’s electricity in September.
Debate over nuclear energy continued. Following October’s parliamentary motion to explore Generation IV nuclear technologies, the Ministry of Energy and Ministry of University launched a new specialized master’s program in Next-Gen Nuclear Power in collaboration with Italian universities. While research on small modular reactors and a Franco-Italian nuclear safety agreement aim to preserve long-term options. Finally, energy companies ENI and ENEL updated their industrial plans to focus on renewable, biofuels, grids, and new technologies, including fusion research.
In November 2025, Italy’s economy showed resilience and credibility, even as growth remained modest. The government’s fiscal discipline helped bring the deficit back towards 3% of GDP, reassuring markets. Yields on 10-year Italian government bonds fell significantly, and narrowing the spread vs. German Bunds to 75 basis points, the lowest level in over a decade. This dramatic drop from the ~175 bps level just a month earlier reflects both a general decline in Eurozone yields and an Italy-specific risk premium collapse. The EU Commission endorsed Italy’s 2026 Budget, noting that public spending would rise only ~1.2% annually, staying within the recommended ceiling and avoiding any EU sanctions. Italy’s credit ratings were stable, with S&P and Fitch upgrading Italy to BBB+ (stable) earlier in 2025.
Key economic indicators remained steady. GDP growth for 2025 is estimated around 0.5%, but domestic demand is being propped up by government measures, including payroll tax cuts and incentives for green investments. Inflation eased to 3.5%, and unemployment remained stable at 7.5%, with youth unemployment around 22%. Industrial production stagnated, but business confidence improved. Italian banks performed well, with solid earnings and low non-performing loan (NPL) ratios. A key banking development concerned Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS): the Treasury, which holds 64%, signaled it may reduce its stake in 2026, potentially though a merger. In late October, MPS acquired 9% of Mediobanca, fueling speculation about indirect influence over Generali’s governance and a possible future reshaping of Italy’s financial sector, though no concrete moves followed in November. The stock market rose 5%, boosted by government-controlled companies.
Looking ahead, Italy’s growth is projected to pick up to ~1.2% in 2026, supported using PNRR funds for digitalization and infrastructure. Structural reforms aim to improve the business climate. However, risks include geopolitical tensions and slow growth in key export markets. Despite challenges, Italy’s fiscal health and progress on reforms have boosted optimism for the future.
Throughout November, Italy maintained a high security alert amid geopolitical strains and isolated threats. The Interior Ministry confirmed enhanced protection at around 29,000 sensitive sites nationwide, including transport hub, diplomatic missions, Jewish institutions, energy infrastructure, and major events. While no imminent threats were identified, authorities stressed the need for maximum vigilance. Security around the US and Israeli embassies and the Vatican remained elevated. Despite incidents abroad, demonstrations in Italy passed peacefully, reflecting effective preventive policing and intelligence monitoring.
At the same time, Italy intensified its anti-mafia campaign. Major operations led dozens of arrests across Apulia, Sicily, Lombardy, targeting drug trafficking, extortion networks, and money laundering by the Sacra Corona Unita, ‘Ndrangheta, and Strisciuglio clan. Authorities also seized millions of euros in criminal assets. Concern over mafia infiltration of PNRR funded projects prompted the launch of a new inter-agency task force (Carabinieri-DIA) to protect public procurement, especially in construction and renewable energy.
Cybersecurity remained a priority. The National Cybersecurity Agency (ACN), and the Defense Ministry’s new Cyber Command, conducted follow-up exercises, including banking sector, and participated in NATO cyber drills. No major attacks occurred, though background threats persisted. With the Holy Year 2025 (Jubilee) occurring, authorities reinforced coordination among police, intelligence, and military.
Overall, Italy’s national security posture in November was vigilant and proactive. No major incidents occurred, and officials signaled sustained alertness into 2026, backed by planned police recruitment and strong coordination among security agencies.
Enel delivered strong results in the first nine months of 2025, confirming the success of its strategic turnaround. The company’s Q3 results, released on November 7, showed record revenues of €59.7 billion for Jan–Sept, up 3.6% year-on-year, while ordinary net profit was essentially flat at €5.24 billion (–0.3% YoY), with underlying growth excluding one-off asset sales. Solid performance in Spain and Latin America offset weaker margins in Italy, while networks and renewables remained key drivers. On the back of these results, Enel shares hit 12-month highs, up over 50% YTD.
Strategically, Enel continued executing its 2024–2026 Strategic Plan, focused on deleveraging and core markets. In November, the board advanced asset disposal, including Peru network and minority stakes in Latin America, cutting net debt to near €51 billion. Investments remain concentrated in renewables, grid, storage, and EV charging, with €10-12bn annually and around 4 GW of new capacity annually. The company also confirmed projects such as a gigafactory for battery cells in Sicily and expanded EV charging via Enel X way. By late November, Enel emerged leaner and financially stronger, backed by a higher interim dividend (€0.23/share) and strong investor confidence.
Eni made major strategic advances in November 2025, strengthening both its global upstream footprint and its energy transition. In the Americas, Eni agreed with YPF to acquire a 50% stake (and operatorship) in the OFF-5 offshore exploration block, a ultra deepwater area seen as highly prospective and complementary to the two firms’ partnership on Argentina’s Vaca Muerta LNG project. The move positions Eni as a first mover in a frontier basin and reinforces its gas-focused growth strategy.
In Asia-Pacific, Eni and Malaysia’s PETRONAS signed a binding Investment agreement to create a 50:50 Joint Venture “NewCo” combining their upstream assets in Indonesia and Malaysia. The new entity consolidates 19 oil and gas assets, improve efficiency, extend field life, and support lower-carbon initiatives, while allowing Eni to scale operations and share risk.
Financially, Eni performed well through Q3 2025 (it had reported a €7.8 billion adjusted net profit for 9M, +4%), paid an interim divided €0.24/share, and continued buybacks. It is also closed to fully eliminating Russian gas from its supply mix. On the decarbonization front, Eni made progress in its downstream transition. Its subsidiary Plenitude expanded renewables in France, Enu secured EIB funding for bio-refineries and launched a clean techVC fund with CDP. Overall, November confirmed Eni’s dual strategy: expanding core hydrocarbons to fund growth while accelerating its shift toward a broader, lower-carbon energy model.
FS Italiane intensified its infrastructure push in November 2025, confirming record annual investments above €18bn as part of its €110bn long-term plan.
As the largest executor of Italy’s PNRR, FS has already committed about 80% of its €25bn allocation, keeping projects on schedule. Key works advanced across the country: Sicily’s Palermo-Catania-Messina high-speed line reached 65% completion, construction accelerated on Naples-Bari, and contracts were signed for a new tunnel on the Milan-Venice corridor.
The Italian government reaffirmed its plan to separate ANAS (national roads agency) from the FS Group by 2026, allowing FS to refocus fully on rail, while road projects continued in the interim. FS also expanded urban and regional mobility, rolling out hybrid trains and launching “smart station” initiatives in major cities.
On the financial side, FS has been leveraging favorable market conditions to fund its investments. In mid-November, FS secured two new loans totaling €250 million and preparing for possible green bond issuance in 2026. Despite heavy capex, debt remains manageable thanks to EU funding and stable revenues. Hiring also accelerated, with a new recruitment drive supporting long-term job creation. Overall, November underscored FS’s central role in Italy’s infrastructure modernization, with large-scale projects firmly moving into execution.
Assicurazioni Generali delivered record results in 9M 2025, confirming the success of its strategic refocus. Gross written premium rose to €73.1bn (+3.7% YoY), driven by strong P&C growth (+7.2%) and a solid performance. Operating profit reached €5.9bn (+10.1%), while normalized net profit climbed to €3.3 billion (+14%), the best none-month result in the group’s history. P&C underwriting was particularly strong, with the combined ratio improving to 92.3%, helped by higher pricing discipline and lower catastrophe losses. Capital strength remained solid, with a Solvency II capital ratio ~214%. These results give momentum as Generali prepares its 2025–2027 strategy focused on wealth management and asset management, health and protection insurance, and digitalization. During November, Generali strengthened its growth profile by gaining approval to raise its stake in itsIndian life JV to 74%, while governance stabilized following earlier shareholder tensions.
Generali also reinforced its shareholder returns, confirming €0.15 interim dividend and maintaining expectations of a rising payout. Shares traded near €21, up ~15% year-to-date, supported by brokers upgrades. With strong earnings excess capital, and a growing fee-based business mix, Generali enters year-end well positioned to exceed its 2025 financial targets and remains a key pillar of Italy’s financial system
Leonardo delivered strong growth, the company’s Q3/9M 2025 results, announced November 5, showed across-the-board double-digit gains. New orders reached €18.2 billion, up a remarkable 23.4% year-on-year, already covering about 80% of Leonardo’s (upgraded) full-year orders target of ~€22.5 billion. Key order contributors included a large Eurofighter Typhoon support & training contract for the Kuwait Air Force (several billion euros), strong orders in the Electronics division. Revenues rose to €13.4 billion while EBITA jumped 18.9% year-on-year, indicating improved margins. CEO Roberto Cingolani expressed confidence that 2025 financial target will be exceeded, and the market responded positively, with shares up around 40% YTD.
Growth is being fueled by higher European and NATO defense budgets, strong demand for electronics, space systems, and helicopters, and solid performance in the US market via Leonardo DRS. The company continues to streamline its portfolio, exiting non-core assets such as Avio, while doubling down defense, space, and cybersecurity. Strategic programs advanced in November, including the GCAP next-generation fighter, expanded satellite activities, and new UAV partnerships.
Financially, cash flow and leverage are improving, supported by a strong backlog and favorable financing. With full order books, rising profitability, and a clear focus on core defense and aerospace initiatives, Leonardo is well positioned to deliver its strongest results in years and consolidate its role as Italy’s national champion in security and advanced technology.
Poste Italiane continued its strong growth in 2025, posting record revenues of €9.64 bn, up to 4.% YOY and new profit of €1.8 bn, jumping +11.2%. Growth was driven by parcel delivery, rising financial services income and strong insurance performance. Assets under custody reached €610 bn, and an interim dividend of €0.24/share was declared.Operationally, Poste Italiane handled peak holiday parcel volumes smoothly, supported financial inclusion, and piloted passport issuance at post offices. Its digital expansion progressed: Postepay processed record transactions, PosteMobile surpassed 5 million customers, and parcel lockers integrated with app boosted convenience. Sustainability efforts advanced with electric vehicles, targeting full green “last mile” by 2030.
As 2025 ends, Poste Italiane appears to be in the strongest shape in its history.
The company calls this period its best since the IPO, and analysts agree – Poste’s balanced business model (an “omnichannel” mix of physical network and digital prowess) is yielding dividends. With the government as a 60% shareholder (via CDP), Poste enjoys policy support and in turn supports government initiatives. All in all, Poste Italiane in November epitomized successful transformation: an ex-monopoly that reinvented itself for the digital age while retaining the trust of Italians as a socially minded company. It stands as a model of public-private synergy, consistently delivering value to shareholders, customers, and the country at large.
SACE advanced its digital and strategic overhaul in November 2025, consolidating its guarantee programs into the “SACE Growth” platform. The new system streamlines support for Italian companies across liquidity, green projects, and strategic infrastructure, with short-term guarantees up to €10 bn and long-term operations up to €64 bn. By November, over 120 partner banks were integrated, allowing fast-track approvals, and several mid-cap firms had used guarantees to expand operations or acquire competitors.
SACE continued backing Italian exports and internationalization, finalizing €300 m in Green Guarantees for renewable projects in eastern Europe and expanding political risk coverage in markets like Nigeria and Brazil. Its roadshow “Energy for the future of exports” engaged 300+ companies to promote international opportunities.
Institutionally, SACE prepared to align with EU State-aid norms, focusing on market-based export support while some domestic functions may shift to the SME Fund. Financially, the agency remains solid, with Fitch affirming a BBB+ rating. By November, SACE Growth has mobilized billions in guaranteed loans, supporting projects from advanced manufacturing in Northern Italy to agro-industry expansions in the South. CEO Alessandra Ricci highlighted SACE’s mission: enabling Italian firms to grow without borders while promoting sustainable and competitive international expansion.
• Adnkronos
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• Bloomberg
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• Centro Alti Studi Difesa
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• CONSOB
• Dagospia
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• Euractiv
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• Formiche.net
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• Geopolitica.info
• Key4Biz
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• Lettera43
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• Senato della Repubblica
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• Staffetta Energetica
• Start Magazine
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• World Energy Council Italia
