The Haizum Washington Dispatch is a monthly intelligence briefing that monitors the most relevant political, economic, regulatory, and strategic developments in the United States. This document focuses on federal policymaking, national security, trade, technology, and macroeconomic dynamics, considering the role of Washington within transatlantic relations, Indo-Pacific strategy, and global geopolitical competition. The report delivers high-level insights by leveraging Haizum’s deep network across the US institutional, policy, and strategic affairs ecosystem.
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This newsletter was prepared for Haizum Strategic Government Affairs. Haizum maintains exclusive rights to circulate this product. All statements of fact and expressions of opinion contained herein are the sole responsibility of the author. This newsletter was produced on Monday, November 24. Developments after that date will be covered in the next issue.
Evolving inflation dynamics are being shaped in part by energy market volatility and the Federal Reserve’s corresponding policy posture. The escalation of the Iran conflict is contributing to significant disruption in global energy supply chains and pricing. The partial government shutdown and ongoing funding negotiations for the Department of Homeland Security are affecting agency operations and creating downstream impacts on travel and public services. Leadership changes at the Department of Homeland Security are occurring amid heightened operational and policy pressures. The release of the USTR’s 2026 Trade Policy Agenda outlines the administration’s priorities on trade enforcement, supply chains, and economic security. New Section 301 investigations signal a potential escalation in US trade actions targeting the European Union and other major trading partners.
At the start of 2026, expectations centered on a more dovish Federal Reserve, with markets anticipating a series of rate cuts as inflation cooled and labor market conditions softened. That outlook has shifted materially in recent weeks.
While inflation had been moderating, hovering near 2.4% year-over-year, the emergence of sustained energy price pressures has complicated the trajectory. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized a markedly more cautious stance, signaling that the central bank is now prioritizing inflation risks over earlier expectations of policy easing.
The primary driver of this shift is the sharp rise in oil and energy prices due to the war with Iran (see next section), which is feeding into broader inflation expectations and financial markets. Higher fuel costs are already pushing up input prices across sectors and raising concerns that inflation could reaccelerate after several months of improvement. As a result, market expectations have been repriced. Earlier projections of multiple rate cuts in 2026 have largely faded, with investors now anticipating a prolonged pause, and in some scenarios, even a rate hike if inflation proves persistent.
The Federal Reserve has responded by holding rates steady while adopting a “wait-and-see” posture, closely monitoring how energy-driven price increases transmit through the broader economy. Policymakers are particularly focused on whether rising energy costs will remain contained or trigger a broader inflationary cycle.
For the Fed, the policy challenge has become more acute: balancing the risk of renewed inflation against signs of slowing growth. The result is a narrower path forward, in which the previously expected pivot toward easing has been delayed, and potentially overtaken by a more uncertain, inflation-sensitive environment.
The escalating conflict involving Iran has triggered a profound disruption in global energy markets, with early indicators pointing to one of the most significant supply shocks in recent years. While the broader geopolitical situation continues to evolve, the immediate economic impact is being felt through sharp volatility in oil and gas markets and rising concerns over sustained supply constraints.
At the center of the disruption is the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil supply transits. Heightened military activity and credible threats to shipping have disrupted tanker flows and injected significant uncertainty into global energy logistics. In some scenarios, analysts warn that a sustained closure or severe restriction of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a cascading global economic shock, given the lack of immediate alternative routes for Gulf exports.
Markets have reacted swiftly. Oil prices have surged as traders price in both immediate supply disruptions and a longer-term geopolitical risk premium. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that the situation represents a structural inflection point for global energy markets. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol noted that this could be a historic energy shock with far-reaching consequences for global markets and energy security.
In response, the United States and allied countries are taking steps to stabilize markets, including discussions around coordinated releases from strategic petroleum reserves and expanded maritime security operations to protect commercial shipping. Governments, particularly those in Europe, are accelerating efforts to reduce dependence on vulnerable energy supply chains, including renewed focus on diversification and energy transition strategies.
For Europe, the implications are especially acute. Already sensitive to external energy shocks, European economies face heightened exposure to price volatility and potential supply constraints, raising the risk of renewed inflationary pressure and economic slowdown.
There are reports that President Trump has sent a 15-point plan to Iran, via Pakistan, intended to help bring the war to a close. Even if the immediate crisis stabilizes, analysts expect a lasting impact. The conflict is likely to embed a higher geopolitical risk premium in global energy markets, reinforcing the strategic importance of energy security and reshaping policy and investment decisions well beyond the conflict’s duration.
A partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) continues as lawmakers remain deadlocked over a funding agreement, with negotiations ongoing but no deal yet enacted. While Senate and White House negotiators have signaled progress toward a potential agreement, any resolution must still pass both the House and Senate. This has left DHS operations still mostly paused with major disruptions for tens of millions of Americans. The operational impact is already becoming visible, particularly in the aviation sector. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) is reporting rising absenteeism among screeners working without pay, contributing to longer wait times at major airports and raising concerns about system-wide resilience. Lawmakers in both parties have pointed to these disruptions as evidence that the funding lapse is beginning to affect frontline services with direct public impact.
At the center of the impasse remains a familiar divide over immigration policy. Democratic lawmakers continue to push for additional oversight and constraints on DHS enforcement practices, while Republicans and the administration have rejected efforts to attach policy conditions to appropriations legislation, arguing that such provisions would limit operational flexibility and undermine border security efforts. These disagreements have stalled progress in the Senate and complicated efforts to move a bill through both chambers.
In the absence of enacted funding, key DHS components, including Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), continue to operate under essential service authorities. However, broader DHS functions, including TSA operations, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)-administered grant programs, and portions of the immigration system, face increasing strain the longer the funding lapse persists.
Republican leadership has promoted a potential “clean” funding extension as a pathway forward, but the proposal has yet to secure the necessary bipartisan support or clear both chambers of Congress. Until legislation is passed and signed into law, DHS remains exposed to continued operational disruption and workforce uncertainty.
For businesses, infrastructure operators, and state and local partners that rely on DHS programs, the situation underscores the ongoing volatility in federal homeland security funding. Absent a near-term breakthrough, both the operational and political consequences of the standoff are likely to deepen.
Separately, leadership developments at DHS are unfolding in parallel, with Senator Markwayne Mullin confirmed as Secretary of Homeland Security following the dismissal of former Secretary Kristi Noem (see next section).
The Senate has confirmed former Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), installing a close ally of President Trump at the helm of one of the federal government’s most complex and politically scrutinized agencies. Mullin was approved in a 54–45 vote, largely along party lines, and succeeds former Secretary Kristi Noem following her dismissal earlier this month.
Mullin, a former House member and first-term senator, assumes leadership at a particularly volatile moment. DHS is currently operating amid a funding standoff and heightened scrutiny over immigration enforcement practices, placing immediate pressure on both operational continuity and workforce morale. A longtime supporter of the administration’s immigration agenda, Mullin is expected to continue a strong enforcement posture. However, during his confirmation process, he signaled a more calibrated approach in certain areas, including indicating support for requiring judicial warrants for most enforcement actions inside homes and businesses. This can be seen as an effort to address concerns raised by lawmakers and civil society groups.
His confirmation was not without controversy. Critics pointed to past rhetoric and questioned his temperament, while supporters emphasized his alignment with administration priorities and his experience navigating Congress. Notably, a small number of Democrats crossed party lines to support his nomination, underscoring a pragmatic recognition of the need for confirmed leadership during a period of instability.
The Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) recently released the President’s 2026 Trade Policy Agenda and 2025 Annual Report, providing Congress and the business community with a detailed overview of US trade policy priorities for the coming year and a retrospective on the administration’s actions in 2025. The report signals a continued shift toward a more strategic and enforcement-focused trade policy centered on domestic manufacturing strength, supply chain resilience, and economic security.
At the core of the agenda is a commitment to what officials describe as a “reciprocal” and “America First” trade framework, which prioritizes reducing trade imbalances, strengthening domestic industrial capacity, and ensuring that trading partners provide market access comparable to that offered by US firms abroad.
The report outlines six principal policy priorities for 2026. First, the administration plans to pursue new reciprocal trade agreements with selected partners while continuing to monitor and enforce existing agreements. Second, USTR intends to expand trade enforcement tools. This includes investigations and tariff authorities to address unfair trade practices and ensure compliance with US law.
Third, supply chain security features prominently in the agenda, with particular emphasis on critical minerals, advanced manufacturing inputs, and other strategic sectors tied to national security and industrial competitiveness. These efforts align with broader administration initiatives to reshore or diversify supply chains for key technologies and materials.
Fourth, the agenda highlights preparations for the mandatory 2026 review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA). The review is expected to examine rules of origin, regional production incentives, and other provisions affecting North American manufacturing competitiveness.
Managing the US economic relationship with China remains another central priority. The administration indicates it will continue pursuing a more balanced bilateral trade relationship through enforcement actions, negotiations, and monitoring of Chinese industrial policies.
Finally, the agenda underscores the United States’ continued engagement in the World Trade Organization and other multilateral forums to shape global trade rules while advancing US strategic interests.
The United States has initiated a sweeping new set of Section 301 investigations targeting the European Union and other major trading partners, marking a significant escalation in trade policy and signaling a potential return to broad-based tariff action.
Announced in March, the investigations focus on two core issues: structural overcapacity in key manufacturing sectors and the failure of foreign governments to adequately address forced labor in supply chains. The EU is a central target in both probes, alongside economies such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, the US Trade Representative (USTR) has the authority to investigate and respond to foreign practices deemed “unreasonable or discriminatory” and that burden US commerce potentially through tariffs or other trade restrictions.
The overcapacity investigation reflects growing US concern that foreign industrial policies are distorting global markets and undermining domestic manufacturing. Concerns especially center around subsidies and state-backed production. USTR has pointed specifically to sectors such as automotive, energy, and advanced manufacturing, where excess production abroad is contributing to persistent trade imbalances. In parallel, a second investigation spans roughly 60 economies, including the EU, examining whether governments have taken sufficient steps to prevent the importation of goods produced with forced labor. As USTR noted, the inquiry will assess whether these practices “burden or restrict US commerce” and harm American workers.
For the EU, the move introduces a new layer of uncertainty into transatlantic trade relations. European officials have pushed back, emphasizing existing and forthcoming regulatory measures aimed at eliminating forced labor from supply chains and warning against unilateral tariff escalation.
The investigations also reflect a broader strategic shift. Following recent legal constraints on earlier tariff authorities, the administration is leveraging Section 301 as a durable mechanism to reassert trade pressure. If the probes result in affirmative findings, new tariffs could be imposed as early as mid-2026. For businesses, the implications are significant. Companies with exposure to EU supply chains or transatlantic trade flows should closely monitor the proceedings, as the outcome could reshape tariff structures, sourcing decisions, and regulatory compliance requirements in the months ahead.
Department of Defense – Dr. Maurice L. “Lin” Todd was confirmed as Assistant Secretary for Readiness.
Department of Education – Nicholas Kent is now Acting Deputy Secretary at the Office of the Secretary and Deputy Secretary.
Department of Energy – Kaveh A. Farzad is the appointee for Assistant Secretary for International Affairs.
Department of Health and Human Services – Kenneth R. “Ken” Callahan III is now Senior Counselor for Policy at the Office of the Secretary.
Department of Homeland Security – Senator Markwayne Mullin was confirmed as Secretary of Homeland Security. Nicholas M. “Nick” Andersen is now Deputy Director at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.
Department of State – Former Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Lynn Noem is now Special Envoy for the Shield of the Americas. Fleet White has been nominated to serve as Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs. The following Ambassador nominees have been transmitted to the Senate: Adam Cassady to be Ambassador-at-Large for Cyberspace and Digital Policy; Preston Wells Griffith III to be the US Representative to the US Mission to International Organizations and the US Representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna; Yeouk Kevin Kim as Ambassador to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations; Darrell R. Owens for US Representative to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe at the US Mission to the OSCE; Juan Rodriguez has been nominated to serve as Ambassador to the Republic of Guatemala; and William Trachman has been nominated to serve as Ambassador to the United Republic of Tanzania.
Department of Transportation – Ryan McCormack was confirmed as Undersecretary of Transportation for Policy.
Office of the United States Trade Representative – Joan E. Hurst is now Acting Assistant US Trade Representative for Agricultural Affairs. Sean O’Connor is now Senior Director for Economic Security and Multilateral Affairs.
White House – Kush S. Desai is now Special Assistant to the President and Senior Deputy Press Secretary. Benjamin H. “Ben” Moss is now Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy Staff Secretary. Gerardo Guerrero is now Digital Services Expert, Design at the US DOGE Service. Dr. Dyanne Vaught is now Senior Economist on the Council of Economic Advisers. William W. “Bill” Kirk is now Chair of the Pandemic Response Accountability Committee. Vetan Kapoor is now Counsel to the Vice President.
