The Haizum Washington Dispatch is a monthly intelligence briefing that monitors the most relevant political, economic, regulatory, and strategic developments in the United States. This document focuses on federal policymaking, national security, trade, technology, and macroeconomic dynamics, considering the role of Washington within transatlantic relations, Indo-Pacific strategy, and global geopolitical competition. The report delivers high-level insights by leveraging Haizum’s deep network across the US institutional, policy, and strategic affairs ecosystem.
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This newsletter was prepared for Haizum Strategic Government Affairs. Haizum maintains exclusive rights to circulate this product. All statements of fact and expressions of opinion contained herein are the sole responsibility of the author. This newsletter was produced on Monday, November 24. Developments after that date will be covered in the next issue.
The US–Iran conflict remains in a fragile holding pattern, with a temporary ceasefire under strain amid continued regional activity and stalled diplomatic progress. Inflation dynamics and Federal Reserve policy remain closely linked, as energy-driven price pressures and a cautious, data-dependent approach guide the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady. Momentum behind Kevin Warsh’s nomination is advancing in the Senate following the Department of Justice’s decision to drop its inquiry into Chair Jerome Powell. The administration’s FY2027 budget proposal outlines a significant shift toward expanded defense spending alongside reductions in non-defense programs, setting the stage for contentious appropriations negotiations. Congressional Republicans are advancing discussions around a second reconciliation package. One year after the administration’s tariff actions, economic, legal, and sectoral impacts continue to unfold, with ongoing uncertainty following a Supreme Court ruling invalidating key elements of the policy. A shooting incident at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner has heightened concerns around political violence and prompted renewed scrutiny of security protocols.
The US–Iran conflict has entered a tenuous holding pattern, with a temporary ceasefire still formally in place but increasingly strained by ongoing military activity and diplomatic uncertainty. The truce, brokered earlier this month to halt hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, has delivered only partial stability as both sides continue to test its limits.
Recent reporting indicates that the Trump administration is dissatisfied with the latest Iranian proposal to move toward a longer-term settlement, raising concerns that negotiations could stall or collapse. According to officials, key disagreements remain over sanctions relief, nuclear constraints, and verification mechanisms. These are issues that have long complicated US–Iran diplomacy. At the same time, the United Nations has renewed calls to fully restore maritime access through Hormuz, underscoring the waterway’s critical importance to global energy flows.
On April 7–8, the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan, aimed at halting active hostilities and reopening critical maritime routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway, through which a significant share of global energy shipments passes, had been partially closed during the conflict, contributing to supply disruptions and volatility in global oil markets. However, on the ground, the ceasefire has proven uneven. While large-scale direct exchanges between US and Iranian forces have subsided, regional tensions persist. Israeli military operations and activity by Iran-backed groups in Iraq and Lebanon continue to create flashpoints that fall outside or exist on the margins of the current agreement. Analysts from Center for Strategic and International Studies warn that without a broader framework addressing proxy conflicts, the risk of renewed escalation remains high.
The conflict is also amplifying divisions within NATO. President Donald Trump has reportedly considered imposing consequences on alliance members perceived as not providing sufficient support, signaling a more transactional approach to alliance management. These tensions complicate coordination at a time when unified Western policy could shape the trajectory of negotiations.
Economically, markets remain sensitive to developments. Although oil prices have eased from their peak, volatility persists amid uncertainty over supply routes and enforcement of the ceasefire. Any disruption to Hormuz could quickly reverse recent declines.
Diplomatic efforts continue, but momentum appears limited. With core issues unresolved and pressure mounting from both military and political fronts, the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the ceasefire evolves into a sustainable agreement or gives way to renewed conflict.
The Federal Reserve has maintained its wait-and-see posture through April, holding the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% as policymakers navigate a more complex mix of inflation dynamics, geopolitical risk, and intensifying political scrutiny. While the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a re-acceleration in headline inflation, driven largely by energy price shocks tied to tensions involving Iran, subsequent data releases and market indicators point to a more uneven and uncertain trajectory rather than a sustained upward surge.
Recent communications from Fed leadership, including Chair Jerome Powell, reinforce a cautious and highly data-dependent stance. Policymakers continue to signal that while inflation remains above the 2% target, they are not yet prepared to tighten policy further without clearer evidence of persistent, broad-based price pressures beyond volatile categories such as energy. At the same time, expectations for rate cuts later in 2026 have become increasingly conditional. Several officials have emphasized that any easing will depend not only on inflation moderation but also on signs of softening in labor market conditions and overall economic activity.
Momentum behind Kevin Warsh as a successor to Jerome Powell has also accelerated in recent weeks. Key Republican voices, including Thom Tillis, have signaled support following the Department of Justice’s decision to drop its inquiry into Powell, removing a significant political complication that had been intertwined with discussions over Fed leadership.
In early April, the Trump administration unveiled its FY2027 budget proposal, which outlines a significant reallocation of federal resources, anchored by a substantial increase in defense spending alongside reductions in non-defense programs. The budget requests approximately $1.5 trillion in total defense funding, representing an increase of roughly $445 billion, or more than 40 percent, compared to FY2026 levels. This includes both base discretionary funding and an additional $350 billion in proposed reconciliation resources.
To offset these increases, the proposal calls for a 10% reduction, approximately $73 billion, in non-defense discretionary spending relative to FY2026 enacted levels. The administration further outlines a multi-year approach in which non-defense spending would decline by an additional 2 percent annually beyond FY2027. These reductions target a range of federal programs, including education, housing, environmental initiatives, and scientific research, while maintaining or increasing funding for border security, immigration enforcement, and select law enforcement functions.
The proposal also includes targeted increases in specific areas, such as federal Pell Grants and veterans’ programs, alongside reductions to agencies, including NASA, proposed at $18.8 billion, a 23 percent decrease from prior levels. Additional defense-related investments focus on shipbuilding, advanced weapons systems, and missile defense initiatives.
Macroeconomic assumptions embedded in the budget project average annual GDP growth of approximately 3 percent over the next decade, exceeding estimates from the Congressional Budget Office and the Federal Reserve.
The budget framework is also closely tied to ongoing “Reconciliation 2.0” discussions on Capitol Hill (see next section). Republican leadership is expected to use the budget resolution to establish reconciliation instructions, enabling passage of key fiscal priorities, including defense funding increases and potential offsets, by a simple majority in the Senate. As such, elements of the proposal may ultimately advance through reconciliation rather than the standard appropriations process.
As with all presidential budget submissions, the proposal serves as a policy blueprint rather than binding legislation. Congressional appropriators will now evaluate, revise, and negotiate spending levels, with final outcomes expected to diverge from the administration’s initial framework.
Congressional Republicans are accelerating discussions around a potential second budget reconciliation package, commonly referred to as “Reconciliation 2.0”, as part of a broader effort to advance fiscal, tax, and national security priorities in 2026.
Recent committee activity signals parallel legislative tracks. The House Ways and Means Committee approved a series of bipartisan tax bills with unanimous support, focused on targeted measures such as disaster relief, taxpayer services, and expanded deductions for educators. Lawmakers have indicated these narrower provisions could later be incorporated into a broader reconciliation vehicle if negotiations advance.
At the same time, Republican leadership is actively laying the groundwork for a second reconciliation package. House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington has framed the effort as a vehicle to fund defense priorities while advancing a broader fiscal framework aimed at reducing deficits over time. Policy discussions under consideration include defense spending, immigration enforcement, and potential spending offsets or revenue measures to comply with reconciliation rules.
Negotiations remain fluid. Some policymakers are exploring the use of reconciliation to move policy items that have struggled to gain bipartisan traction, while others continue to pursue parallel bipartisan agreements on discrete tax provisions. This dual-track approach reflects both the procedural advantages of reconciliation, which allows passage in the Senate by a simple majority, and ongoing challenges in building consensus across factions.
Despite growing momentum, questions remain regarding scope, timing, and internal alignment. Lawmakers have acknowledged that assembling a package that satisfies fiscal constraints and political priorities will require further negotiation in the weeks ahead. As Congress returns from recess, attention is expected to shift toward formalizing a budget framework and determining whether a second reconciliation bill can advance alongside bipartisan tax legislation.
One year after the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariff actions, the policy’s economic and sectoral impacts are coming into sharper focus across trade, manufacturing, and consumer markets. The measures, centered on expanded duties across a range of imports, including China-origin goods, were designed to bolster domestic production, address trade imbalances, and incentivize supply chain reshoring.
Available data indicates that tariffs have generated significant federal revenue while imposing measurable costs across the economy. According to an analysis summarized by the Council on Foreign Relations, US tariffs implemented under the policy framework have raised tens of billions of dollars in annual customs revenue. At the same time, multiple studies estimate that most tariff costs have been borne domestically, with importers and downstream purchasers absorbing price increases rather than foreign exporters. Research cited by the Center for American Progress indicates that small business importers have incurred average additional costs of approximately $306,000 per firm over the past year.
Sector-specific impacts have varied. Agricultural producers and manufacturers reliant on imported inputs have reported margin compression and reduced competitiveness in export markets, according to findings from the National Taxpayers Union. At the same time, administration officials and the Office of the United States Trade Representative report that tariffs have contributed to increased domestic investment in targeted industries and strengthened leverage in trade negotiations, including expanded market access commitments from trading partners.
Macroeconomic indicators show mixed effects. Inflationary pressures linked to tariffs have been noted in consumer goods categories exposed to import costs, while broader inflation trends remain influenced by multiple factors, including monetary policy and energy prices. Public opinion data from Ipsos suggests a divided electorate, with respondents split on whether tariffs have strengthened the US economy or increased household costs.
Industry response remains uneven. Some domestic producers report incremental gains in capacity utilization, while others, particularly manufacturers dependent on global supply chains, continue to cite uncertainty regarding input costs and long-term policy direction. Reporting from Reuters and Politico indicates that investment decisions in certain sectors continue to be contingent on clarity around tariff duration and potential adjustments.
The Supreme Court of the United States ruled in February 2026 that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act exceeded presidential authority, effectively invalidating key elements of the “Liberation Day” tariff framework. The decision halted further collection of those duties and reaffirmed Congress’s primary role over tariff policy. The ruling has prompted ongoing disputes over remedies. While the tariffs were struck down, the Court did not fully resolve how to handle previously collected duties, leaving lower courts and administrative bodies to determine refund mechanisms. This has created uncertainty for companies seeking potential reimbursements, with litigation and claims processes expected to continue.
A shooting incident at the 2026 White House Correspondents’ Dinner has injected new urgency into concerns about political violence and security vulnerabilities surrounding high-profile government gatherings. The incident, which unfolded on April 25th at the Washington Hilton, occurred just outside the main security screening area as attendees, including senior administration officials and members of the press, were arriving for the annual event.
Authorities have identified the suspect as Cole Tomas Allen, a 31-year-old California resident who allegedly attempted to breach the event’s security perimeter while armed with multiple weapons, including a shotgun and handgun. According to federal investigators, Allen charged a security checkpoint and discharged at least one round before being subdued by law enforcement. A federal officer was struck but was protected by a ballistic vest, and no fatalities were reported.
Allen now faces multiple federal charges, including attempting to assassinate the president, as Donald Trump attended the dinner alongside senior Cabinet officials. Prosecutors allege the attack was premeditated, with investigators pointing to a manifesto and evidence that Allen traveled from California to Washington, D.C. in advance of the event. Currently, authorities assess that he acted alone, though the investigation remains ongoing.
The incident has prompted renewed scrutiny of event security protocols, particularly given the concentration of senior government officials in a semi-public venue. While the Secret Service successfully prevented the attacker from entering the main ballroom, the breach attempt has raised questions about perimeter control and screening procedures at high-profile but non-classified gatherings. More broadly, the shooting underscores a troubling pattern of escalating threats against political figures in the United States. As policymakers and security officials assess the implications, the episode is likely to shape future approaches to safeguarding public events that sit at the intersection of politics, media, and national security.
Department of Commerce – Evan Broderick is now Director, Technology Analysis Division at the Bureau of Industry and Security. Brandon N. Elsner is now Senior Policy Advisor at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Jackson Miller is now a Special Assistant at the International Trade Administration.
Department of Energy – Caitlin Webster is now Special Advisor at the Office of the Deputy Secretary.
Department of Health and Human Services – Dr. Laura Elisabeth Armstrong is now Chief of Staff at the Office of the Director, National Institutes of Health. Cynthia “Cyndi” Goss is now Acting Assistant Secretary at the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation. Lydia (Tucker) Vogt is now Acting Director at the Office of Executive Secretariat, Food and Drug Administration.
Department of Homeland Security – David R. “Dave” Natonski is now Chief of Staff at the Office of the Secretary. Dr. Casey B. Mulligan in the Chief Economist and Chief Regulatory Officer in the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation. Sarel B. Anbar is now Strategic Advisor at the One Big Beautiful Bill Principal Executive Office. Randolph N. “Randy” Blair Jr. is now Chief Counsel at the Office of Chief Counsel, US Citizenship and Immigration Services.
Department of Justice – Colin McDonald is now Associate Deputy Attorney General.
Department of Labor – Keith E. Sonderling is now the Acting Secretary of Labor. Brian P. Kennedy is now Director at the Office of Immigration Policy.
Department of State – Ryan E. Shrum is now Acting Assistant Secretary at the Bureau of Disaster and Humanitarian Response. Shannon E. Sprenger is now Deputy Assistant Secretary for Professional and Cultural Exchanges. Taylor Howell Garrett is now Deputy Assistant Secretary under the Under Secretary for Foreign Assistance and Humanitarian Affairs. Kim Badenhop is now the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Planning, Resources, and Innovation.
Federal Trade Commission – Brendan T. Chestnut is now Director at the Office of Policy Planning. Richard Diamond is now Deputy Director at the Office of Public Affairs.
Office of Management and Budget – Travis C. Stalcup is now Chief at Defense Operations, Personnel, and Support. Olivia L. Ingrassia is now Counselor to the Administrator at the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs.
Office of the United States Trade Representative – Susan Gao is now Assistant General Counsel at the Office of the General Counsel. Erin Biel is now Associate General Counsel at the Office of the General Counsel. MacKenna Clifton is now Special Assistant to the Chief Agricultural Negotiator.
Dr. Casey B. Mulligan has a new position as Chief Economist and Chief Regulatory Officer at Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation [ASPE], Office of the Deputy Secretary, United States Department of Health and Human Services [HHS]
White House – The Council of Economic Advisers has several new staff additions–Benjamin A. “Ben” LeRoy is now Chief of Staff, Dr. Graham D. Newell is now Chief Economist, and Grayson B. Robinson is now Senior Economist. Bill Woolf is now the Associate Director at Homeland Security Programs in the Executive Office of the President. Michael D. Perkins is now the Deputy Chief of Staff in the Office of National Drug Control Policy. The President has named the following individuals to the Council of Advisors on Science and Technology: Dr. Jacob D. DeWitte, “Dave” Friedberg, Bob Mumgaard, John M. Martinis, Dr. Lisa T. Su, and Mark Zuckerberg.
