With polls showing a dead-heat between the two coalitions, the center-right is moving to replace the Rosatellum with a new electoral law, the Stabilicum, built around a 70-seat majority bonus that would turn even a 0.1% lead into an outright parliamentary majority. The official rationale is governability. The political reality is more delicate: simulations show the reform would reward Fratelli d’Italia at the expense of its own coalition partners, and, given the current polling balance, could just as easily deliver power to the center-left.

This outlook examines the mechanics of the proposal, maps the political alignments around it, and assesses the probability of passage. Our assessment: the government will attempt the reform but is unlikely to deliver it intact. Coalition centrifugal forces, opposition stonewalling, and constitutional doubts all point to a diluted text, or no text at all, before the autumn recess. The signals to watch are clear; the timeline, short.